Kurds and Turks war. The Kurds are against everyone. How a Middle East war could lead to the creation of a new country. Kurdistan seeks independence

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The People's Defense Forces (HPG), the military wing of the PKK, announced that on November 9 and 10 they carried out attacks on six military bases in the southern Turkish provinces of Hakkari and Sirnak. The HPG said 17 Turkish soldiers were killed and 32 others were wounded in the attacks. In addition, according to HPG information, 8 soldiers are considered missing.

It should be noted that on November 10, the PKK, using attack UAVs, also carried out an attack on several targets in the territory of the administrative center of the region and to the south of it. According to Turkish sources, the UAVs did not reach their targets due to technical faults and the possible suppression of communications by the Turkish military.

Shirnak province borders both northern Syria and northern Iraq. Interestingly, the latest PKK attacks confirm Turkey's repeated claims that Kurdish armed groups operating in the area, mainly the YPG, pose a direct threat to Turkey's national security.

On November 13, 4 YPG-affiliated security forces were killed in the northern Syrian city of Manbij. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack, publishing a report through the Amaq agency.

The Turkish leadership has repeatedly named Manbij, as well as YPG-controlled territories east of the Euphrates River, as targets for the upcoming operation against the YPG. At the end of October, the Turkish Armed Forces carried out several strikes on YPG positions in the area of ​​​​the city of Kobani, and also transferred additional troops and equipment to the southern Turkish provinces adjacent to the YPG territories.

In November, Saif Abu Bakr, commander of the military wing of the pro-Turkish militant group, the Hamza Division, announced that their fighters were ready to participate in a large-scale operation against the YPG east of the Euphrates.

The YPG forms the backbone of the US-backed SDF. American support for the SDF is the cause of constant conflicts between Ankara and Washington. For example, on November 12, Turkey's Interior Minister, Suleyman Soylu, harshly criticized what he called the "two-faced policy" of the United States towards Turkey, referring to the continued American support for Kurdish armed groups in northern Syria. In addition, he stated that the United States receives 20% of YPG's income from the sale of oil from the fields they occupy.

If Washington continues to provide political and military support to the YPG and the group strengthens its power in the Arab territories of northeastern Syria it has captured, creating a springboard for further attacks by the PKK on targets in southern Turkey, then relations between

Any nation experiences a time of active wars and expansion. But there are tribes where militancy and cruelty are an integral part of their culture. These are ideal warriors without fear and morality.

Maori

The name of the New Zealand tribe "Maori" means "ordinary", although, in truth, there is nothing ordinary about them. Even Charles Darwin, who happened to meet them during his voyage on the Beagle, noted their cruelty, especially towards the whites (English), with whom they had to fight for territories during the Maori wars.

Maori are considered the indigenous people of New Zealand. Their ancestors sailed to the island approximately 2000-700 years ago from Eastern Polynesia. Before the arrival of the British in the middle of the 19th century, they had no serious enemies; they had fun mainly with civil strife.

During this time, their unique customs, characteristic of many Polynesian tribes, were formed. For example, they cut off the heads of captured enemies and ate their bodies - this is how, according to their beliefs, the enemy’s power passed to them. Unlike their neighbors, the Australian Aborigines, the Maori fought in two world wars.

Moreover, during World War II they themselves insisted on forming their own 28th battalion. By the way, it is known that during the First World War they drove away the enemy with their “haku” battle dance during the offensive operation on the Gallipoli Peninsula. This ritual was accompanied by war cries and scary faces, which literally discouraged enemies and gave the Maori an advantage.

Gurkhas

Another warlike people who also fought on the side of the British are the Nepalese Gurkhas. Even during colonial policy, the British classified them as the “most militant” peoples they encountered.

According to them, the Gurkhas were distinguished by aggressiveness in battle, courage, self-sufficiency, physical strength and a low pain threshold. England itself had to surrender to the pressure of their warriors, armed only with knives.

It is not surprising that back in 1815 a wide campaign was launched to attract Gurkha volunteers into the British army. Skilled fighters quickly gained fame as the best soldiers in the world.

They managed to take part in the suppression of the Sikh uprising, the Afghan, First and Second World Wars, as well as in the Falklands conflict. Today, the Gurkhas are still the elite fighters of the British army. They are all recruited there – in Nepal. I must say, the competition for selection is crazy - according to the modernarmy portal, there are 28,000 candidates for 200 places.

The British themselves admit that the Gurkhas are better soldiers than themselves. Maybe because they are more motivated. Although the Nepalese themselves say, it’s not about money at all. They are proud of their martial art and are always happy to put it into action. Even if someone pats them on the shoulder in a friendly manner, in their tradition this is considered an insult.

Dayaks

When some small peoples are actively integrating into the modern world, others prefer to preserve traditions, even if they are far from the values ​​of humanism.

For example, the Dayak tribe from the island of Kalimantan, who have earned a terrible reputation as headhunters. What to do - you can become a man only by bringing the head of your enemy to the tribe. At least this was the case back in the 20th century. The Dayak people (Malay for “pagan”) are an ethnic group that unites numerous peoples inhabiting the island of Kalimantan in Indonesia.

Among them: Ibans, Kayans, Modangs, Segais, Trings, Inichings, Longwais, Longhat, Otnadom, Serai, Mardahik, Ulu-Ayer. Even today, some villages can only be reached by boat.

The bloodthirsty rituals of the Dayaks and the hunt for human heads were officially stopped in the 19th century, when the local sultanate asked the Englishman Charles Brooke from the dynasty of white rajahs to somehow influence the people who knew no other way to become a man except to cut off someone's head.

Having captured the most militant leaders, he managed to guide the Dayaks to a peaceful path through a “carrot and stick policy.” But people continued to disappear without a trace. The last bloody wave swept across the island in 1997-1999, when all world agencies shouted about ritual cannibalism and the games of little Dayaks with human heads.

Kalmyks

Among the peoples of Russia, one of the most warlike are the Kalmyks, descendants of the Western Mongols. Their self-name translates as “breakaways,” which means Oirats who did not convert to Islam. Today, most of them live in the Republic of Kalmykia. Nomads are always more aggressive than farmers.

The ancestors of the Kalmyks, the Oirats, who lived in Dzungaria, were freedom-loving and warlike. Even Genghis Khan did not immediately manage to subjugate them, for which he demanded the complete destruction of one of the tribes. Later, the Oirat warriors became part of the army of the great commander, and many of them became related to the Genghisids. Therefore, it is not without reason that some of the modern Kalmyks consider themselves descendants of Genghis Khan.

In the 17th century, the Oirats left Dzungaria and, having made a huge transition, reached the Volga steppes. In 1641, Russia recognized the Kalmyk Khanate, and from now on, from the 17th century, Kalmyks became permanent participants in the Russian army. They say that the battle cry “hurray” once came from the Kalmyk “uralan”, which means “forward”. They especially distinguished themselves in the Patriotic War of 1812. 3 Kalmyk regiments, numbering more than three and a half thousand people, took part in it. For the Battle of Borodino alone, more than 260 Kalmyks were awarded the highest orders of Russia.

Kurds

The Kurds, along with the Arabs, Persians and Armenians, are one of the most ancient peoples of the Middle East. They live in the ethnogeographical region of Kurdistan, which was divided among themselves by Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria after the First World War.

The Kurdish language, according to scientists, belongs to the Iranian group. In religious terms, they have no unity - among them there are Muslims, Jews and Christians. It is generally difficult for Kurds to come to an agreement with each other. Even Doctor of Medical Sciences E.V. Erikson noted in his work on ethnopsychology that the Kurds are a people merciless to the enemy and unreliable in friendship: “they respect only themselves and their elders. Their morality is generally very low, superstition is extremely high, and real religious feeling is extremely poorly developed. War is their direct innate need and absorbs all interests.”

It is difficult to judge how applicable this thesis, written at the beginning of the 20th century, is today. But the fact that they never lived under their own centralized power makes itself felt. According to Sandrine Alexy of the Kurdish University in Paris: “Every Kurd is a king on his own mountain. That’s why they quarrel with each other, conflicts arise often and easily.”

But for all their uncompromising attitude towards each other, the Kurds dream of a centralized state. Today, the “Kurdish issue” is one of the most pressing in the Middle East. Numerous unrest in order to achieve autonomy and unite into one state have been ongoing since 1925. From 1992 to 1996, the Kurds fought a civil war in northern Iraq; permanent protests still occur in Iran. In a word, the “question” hangs in the air. Today, the only Kurdish state entity with broad autonomy is Iraqi Kurdistan.

The withdrawal of American troops from Syria promised by President Donald Trump has been postponed in order to save local Kurds. Kurdish militant groups have played an important role in the fight against radical Islamists in Syria. And now Turkish troops promise to crush the Kurds. For the Americans, the Kurdish People's Protection Units are a valuable ally in the fight against terrorists, and for the Turks, the Kurds themselves are terrorists.

There are approximately 40 million Kurds in the world. This is the poorest and most disenfranchised people. The only large nation deprived of its state.

And for a whole century no one was interested in his fate. In addition to human rights and humanitarian organizations.

The wife of French President Danielle Mitterrand was an ardent supporter of the Kurds:

“I am constantly monitoring the fate of the Kurdish people. I saw in what unbearable conditions these persecuted people live. Under the guise of fighting terrorism, the Turkish army is carrying out real state terror in the region. But my voice remains a voice crying in the wilderness.”

Kurdish refugees take refuge from Turkish aircraft and artillery in mountain caves in the canton of Afrin. Photo: RIA Novosti

They promised but didn't deliver

The victors of the First World War divided the vast inheritance of the Ottoman Empire very hastily. The boundaries were drawn by eye, which gave rise to conflicts between neighbors. Syria, which was under French rule, was given the Golan Heights (because of them, a war with Israel would break out). Transjordan got the territory east of the Jordan River, which Palestinian Arabs consider theirs.

And the Kurds, a more numerous people than the Palestinian Arabs, did not receive their own state at all.

And there was a moment when it seemed that the Kurds were close to success. On August 10, 1920, the Entente forced Turkey to sign the Treaty of Sèvres, which provided for the creation of an independent Kurdish state (Articles 62 and 64) in British mandated territory in northern Iraq. But the treaty was not ratified by anyone except Italy, and did not last long. The Treaty of Lausanne, which replaced it, signed on July 24, 1923, no longer implied autonomy, much less independence, for the Kurds.

Kurdistan is divided between four countries - Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria. And none of them wants an independent Kurdish state to arise. The countries in which the Kurds live are trying at all costs to prevent them from uniting. Their right to autonomy, even cultural autonomy, is denied.

Let's say there are approximately 6 million Kurds in Iran, 11% of the population. But the Islamic leadership considers Iran a mononational state. Followers of Ayatollah Khomeini insist that adherence to a single religion - Shiite Islam - is more important than ethnic differences.

Iranian intelligence services are hunting Kurdish activists even abroad. Abdurrahman Kasemloo, head of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, has found refuge in Europe. Tehran's envoys invited him to meet in Vienna and improve relations. He arrived with two assistants, and on July 13, 1989, they were shot with machine guns right on the street. The killers have disappeared.

His successor was killed in Berlin. Around midnight on September 18, 1992, two gunmen burst into the back room of the Mykonos Greek restaurant and began shooting at customers, killing three and mortally wounding a fourth. All these were Kurds - opponents of the Iranian regime: the new chairman of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan Sadek Sharafkandi, representatives of the party in Europe and a translator. The terrorists shouted in Farsi: “Sons of whores!”

German investigators have done a great job. It was established that the murder of the Kurds was the work of three Iranian departments at once - the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, the special forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the army counterintelligence...

Mekhabad Republic

Historically, the Kurds have been a natural ally of Russia because Russia has often fought with Turkey, and the enemy of our enemies is our friend.

During Soviet times, the Kurds became an ally of Moscow as participants in the national liberation movement. After the revolution, an autonomous Kurdish district was created in Azerbaijan, which went down in history under the name “Red Kurdistan”. A Kurdish national theater and Kurdish schools appeared. But in 1930 the district was liquidated. Kurds were expelled from border areas.

During World War II, Soviet troops entered Iran. After the war, in the Kurdish-populated western part of the country - with the assistance of the Soviet army - an independent Kurdish People's Republic was proclaimed with its capital in the town of Mehabad. About two thousand fighters arrived from neighboring Iraq under the command of Mullah Mustafa Barzani.

Mustafa Barzani. Wikipedia

On October 21, 1945, the commander of the newly created Baku Military District, Army General Ivan Maslennikov, and the first secretary of the Azerbaijan Central Committee, Mir Jafar Bagirov, reported to Moscow:

“In pursuance of the decision of the Central Committee of the All-Union Communist Party (Bolsheviks) of October 8, 1945 on the issue of Iranian Azerbaijan and Northern Kurdistan, we carried out the following: We identified 21 experienced operatives of the NKVD and NKGB of the Azerbaijan SSR, capable of organizing work to eliminate individuals and organizations interfering with the development of the autonomist movement in Iranian Azerbaijan. These same comrades must organize armed partisan detachments from the local population.”

The Mehabad Republic existed for 11 months, until the end of 1946. When Soviet troops left Iran, it was doomed. The president of the republic was hanged by the Shah's troops. Mullah Barzani, who served as commander-in-chief of the Republican Army, and his supporters crossed the Soviet border and lived in our country for 12 years.

"1. It is considered necessary to resettle a group of Iraqi Kurds living in six regions of the Uzbek SSR in the amount of 483 people, headed by Mullah Mustafa Barzani, in one or two districts of the Tashkent region. 2. Oblige the Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party (Bolsheviks) of Uzbekistan, Comrade Niyazov, to provide housing and work for Iraqi Kurds at the enterprises of the Sadsovkhoztrest of the Ministry of Food Industry; take measures to improve the material and living situation and medical care of Iraqi Kurds, organize political, educational, cultural and educational work among them, as well as their study of agricultural technology. 3. Entrust the Ministry of State Security of the USSR (Comrade Ignatiev) with monitoring and control over the implementation of this resolution and carrying out corresponding work among the Iraqi Kurds of the Mullah Mustafa Barzani group.”

Barzani's son Masoud later said:

My father and his compatriots in the Soviet Union found themselves in the position of prisoners of war. After Stalin's death things became easier. Khrushchev himself received his father...

Chemical Ali, Saddam's brother

In 1959, Barzani returned to his homeland - Iraq promised to give its Kurds equal rights. But already in 1961, war broke out again. Barzani settled in the north of the country, from where he led the fight against government troops. In 1966, Pravda’s own correspondent Yevgeny Primakov was ordered to go to northern Iraq. Barzani hugged the Soviet journalist with the words: “The Soviet Union is my dad.”

Barzani was very frank with Primakov. Therefore, Yevgeny Maksimovich’s encryptions were highly appreciated in Moscow and they asked him to go to Iraqi Kurdistan again.

“From 1966 to 1970,” Primakov recalled, “I was the only Soviet representative who regularly met with Barzani. In the summer he lived in a hut, in the winter in a dugout.”

The Kurds were promised autonomy in Iraq, the right to elect their own authorities, and participate in the government. It was agreed that a Kurd would become the vice-president of the country. On March 10, 1970, Mustafa Barzani signed the agreement, counting on the promised autonomy. On March 11, the new President of Iraq, General Hassan al-Bakr, read the text of the agreement on radio and television. But the Kurds did not receive their promise. An “Arab belt” was purposefully created on the border with neighboring Iran. To change the demographic situation, Arab Iraqis were resettled there. And government troops evicted the original inhabitants from Iraqi Kurdistan. In 1974, Kurdish leaders felt they had been deceived and the armed struggle resumed.

A Kurd stands near his house, which was destroyed by an Iranian shell. Photo: RIA Novosti

Successive Iraqi regimes spoke out in favor of solving the Kurdish problem, but invariably ended up killing Kurds. Saddam Hussein ordered the punishment of the Kurds and killed more than one hundred thousand people in Iraqi Kurdistan. Saddam assigned this to General Ali Hassan al-Majid. General al-Majid was Saddam's cousin and even looked like him. On his orders, Kurdish villages were sprayed with chemical warfare agents from helicopters.

The village of Khalajba was destroyed from the air, five thousand people died from nerve gas. After this, the general received the nickname Chemical Ali.

Iraqi Kurdistan

During Operation Desert Storm in 1991, when the international community attacked Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi Kurds (more than five million of them) launched an uprising that covered 95% of the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan. But Saddam suppressed the uprising and drove the Kurds into the mountains. When Iraqi forces again used chemical weapons, US President George H. W. Bush ordered an intervention.

On April 7, 1991, Operation Solace was launched to ensure the safety of Kurdish refugees. The Americans defined a “security zone” that Iraqi troops were prohibited from entering. In accordance with UN Security Council Resolution No. 688, a “free area” was created under the tutelage of the US military. There, in northern Iraq, approximately three million Kurds have settled. They elected their parliament and formed a government.

In September 2017, more than three million people in Iraqi Kurdistan took part in a referendum and voted to create an independent state. But neither Iraq nor any other country recognized the referendum. The Kurdish state remains unrecognized.

Mustafa Barzani's son, Masoud Barzani, former President of Iraqi Kurdistan, votes in the Iraqi Kurdistan Parliament elections. Photo: Reuters

“There are no Kurds in Turkey!”

The largest number of Kurds are in Turkey - at least 16 million. Moreover, half live in the underdeveloped southeastern region, engulfed in guerrilla warfare, which the authorities consider terrorism.

Ankara has always said that “there is neither a Kurdish nation nor a Kurdish language in Turkey, and the Kurds are part of the Turkic nation, the mountain Turks.” The Kurdish language was banned. At the birth of a child, Turkish officials replaced the Kurdish name with a Turkish one.

In response, Turkish Kurds created the Kurdistan Workers' Party on November 27, 1978. The goal is an independent state. The party has iron discipline and a strict hierarchy. The leader of the party, which adopted Marxist ideas and called on the Kurds to revolt, was Abdallah Ocalan. Both Kurds and Turks behaved equally cruelly. Kurdish militants carried out terrorist attacks in Turkish cities, spreading fear among the population. They attacked Turkish teachers, engineers, and employees of state-owned companies. Turkish regular troops carried out punitive operations and cleared out entire villages whose residents were suspected of helping militants of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.

In 1980, after a military coup in Turkey, Kurdish militant groups led by Ocalan fled to Syria, where they were sheltered and allowed to establish their bases.

The states in which the Kurds live brutally suppress them. But they willingly help other Kurds. For example, Iran helped the Iraqi Kurds because it was at enmity with Baghdad. And the Syrians favored the Turkish Kurds who fought against Turkey. Kurds also live in Syria - about four million. This is 15% of the population, but the Kurds were not considered a national minority; publications in the Kurdish language and the dissemination of works of national culture were prohibited. In a word, the Assad dynasty keeps its Kurds under a tight rein. And the Turkish Kurds were secretly helped, since the Assads love Turkish politicians even less than the Kurds.

But the Turkish Defense Minister said: we demand that Syria stop helping Kurdish terrorists. The Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish Army spoke of an “undeclared war” and announced a plan to attack Syrian troops. With the threat of war, Türkiye forced Syria to back down and refuse support to the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Abdallah Ocalan fled from Syria to Russia, counting on the traditional support of Moscow.

Asylum denied

In November 1998, the State Duma voted to grant Ocalan political asylum. However, head of government Yevgeny Primakov opposed this. He believed that relations with Turkey were more important for the Russian government, and Moscow did not want to support the Kurdish separatists at the time of the military operation in Chechnya.

A family of Kurdish illegal immigrants eats dinner sitting on the floor in a rest home. A.P. Chekhov. Photo: RIA Novosti

Equally unsuccessfully, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party sought refuge in Italy and Greece. In February 1999, the Turks arrested Ocalan.

Opinions were divided. Some considered him a terrorist, a criminal, they said that he had blood on his hands and his place was in the dock. Others called him the leader of the national liberation movement and asked to take into account the plight of the Kurds. The Kurds themselves say that in the eyes of the people, Ocalan is the personification of the centuries-old dream of a strong leader. He was sentenced to death, which was commuted to life imprisonment.

The brutal war against the Kurds prevented Turkey from becoming a modern state and damaged the reputation of the Turkish military. But in 2013, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then prime minister, promised to give the Kurds more rights. In return, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, Ocalan, ordered his fighters to stop the armed struggle with Turkey, which had claimed more than forty thousand lives over three decades, and declared that equality in rights would be won exclusively through political means. Erdogan then longed for Kurdish support in the elections.

But then events began in Syria. Islamic terrorists killed Yazidi Kurds. Kurdish troops desperately resisted the jihadists and played a significant role in this war. In Syria, torn by civil war, they conquered territory for a future state. But Turkey is determined to prevent the Syrian Kurds from creating, following the example of the Iraqi ones, their own state entity and intends to defeat the Kurdish troops in the northeast of the country after the departure of American troops.

Kurdish People's Protection Units in Iraq. Photo: Zuma\TASS

US National Security Adviser John Bolton said Washington will protect its Kurdish allies in Syria. Turkish President Erdogan responded by refusing to meet with him. All this means that fighting in Syria will continue. But the Kurds will not soon gain their own state.

The territory of historical Kurdistan is incredibly rich in natural resources, especially oil, but the Kurds live poorly. They are offended when they are considered nomads, mountaineers, pastoralists, deprived of an independent culture and national identity. In reality, the Kurds say, we are a people with a rich and varied culture, although we are considered strangers everywhere and are forced to vegetate at the lowest rung of the social ladder. Why are we worse than the Turks, Arabs, Persians, and other peoples?

The Kurds are convinced that they are left to the mercy of fate and can only rely on themselves. More precisely, on the strength of his weapon. They believe that only armed struggle will help them gain independence. Kurds are good warriors. But they are not fighting against faint-hearted Americans or Europeans who keep count of every death, but against the Turks, Iranians, and Iraqis. Who will win this war of attrition?

The less attention the world pays to the Kurds, this persecuted people, the stronger the position of those who believe that only terror will force the world to pay attention to them and help them. Unfortunately, it is impossible to say anything more optimistic.

Türkiye launched a new invasion of Syrian territory, and again without formal permission from Damascus. As last time, during Operation Euphrates Shield in the summer of 2016, Ankara’s goal is to defeat the Kurds and secure its borders. What prompted Turkey to attack, threatening to derail the peace process in a war-torn state, why Ankara hates the Kurds so much and what will happen next - we were looking into it.

“We will gradually destroy the corridor of terror, as we did in Jarablus and Al-Bab, starting from the west. The operation in Afrin has actually already begun, the next target is Manbij,” said the Turkish President, giving the formal start of Operation Olive Branch. At this time, warplanes were already targeting Kurdish positions: according to Ankara, almost all 153 intended targets were successfully hit. The Kurds responded that the Turks struck residential areas of the city of Afrin. “We will defeat the aggressors, as we have won more than once in the battles for our villages and cities,” representatives of the Kurdish Self-Defense Units (YPG) bravely promised.

In addition to Turkish pilots and artillerymen, thousands of militiamen of the pro-Turkish “Syrian National Army” are participating in the operation. This is not “”, originally formed from units that broke away from the Syrian government army back in 2011: Ankara created its own structure of Arabs and Syrian Turkmens, armed it and supplied it with allowances from the budget. They do not go into battle alone: ​​they are supported by Turkish tank units.

An impressive Kurdish group is opposing the Turks: 10 thousand people have been put under arms both from the YPG and from the “branded” units of this people: the women’s self-defense units. Many of the Kurdish fighters have extensive experience in battles with terrorist groups, militants of other Islamist groups, and even with the Syrian government army.

In addition, the Kurds are the main US ally in the region. It was on their units that Washington made its main bet in the fight against ISIS terrorists and at one time gave them an impressive arsenal - including, according to some sources, AT-4 anti-tank systems. That is why the battle will not be easy, and “Erdogan’s blitzkrieg” will not work.

Russia’s role in the incident is noteworthy: in accordance with the regime of de-escalation of violence in Syria, Russian military personnel were stationed in the Tell Rifaat zone near the city of Afrin. Before the Turkish invasion began, they were transferred to another area, and Russia expressed concern about Turkey's actions. “To forestall possible provocations and eliminate threats to the life and health of Russian military personnel, the operational group of the Center for Reconciliation of Warring Parties and the Military Police in the Afrin region has been redeployed to the Tell Ajar area of ​​the Tell Rifaat deconfliction zone,” the statement says.

To coordinate joint actions, after the meeting between Poplavsky and YPG commander Sipan Hemo, a joint headquarters was even created in the city of Es-Salihiyya, which the Russian major general called very important. Moreover - like /2

You can try to find an explanation for this behavior. Russia announced victory over the Islamic State and the withdrawal of a significant part of the contingent from Syria: meanwhile, in the province of Idlib, government troops are fighting the hardest battles with moderate - often pro-Turkish - opposition units who do not want to recognize the power of Bashar al-Assad. And literally the day before the Turkish invasion, the strategically important Abu ad-Duhur airbase was surrendered to the Syrian troops - numerous opposition units retreated to support the Turkish offensive on Afrin.

From the point of view of the opposition, leaving from under Abu ad-Duhur and exposing your rear to Assad’s army is pure suicide, unless, of course, we are talking about dividing zones of influence. It can be assumed that Damascus was promised to surrender an important air base in exchange for non-interference in Afrin - and Russia supported such a plan. Moscow has never hidden that its task is to support the “legitimate government,” that is, Bashar al-Assad. The alliance with the Kurds, therefore, was only a tactical maneuver within the framework of the overall pro-Assad strategy.

But even taking into account the non-interference of Russia and the United States, there is no reason to consider the capture of Afrin a done deal. As the head of the Center for Islamic Studies at the Institute for Innovative Development, an RIAC expert, told Lenta.ru, previous experience shows that the Kurds can build an effective defense, which is very difficult to overcome. This was the case, for example, during an operation near the city of Tell Rifaat in October 2016: then the assault by Turkish troops and allied militias failed.

“In addition, the Kurds have 10 thousand fighters in Afrin. It is almost impossible to force such a huge group to surrender; there have been no such precedents during the entire civil war in Syria. It is unlikely that Turkish troops and their allies will be able to take control of the entire canton of Afrin. It is quite possible that they will have to be content with only part of the region - for example, the same city of Tel Rifaat with the surrounding territories,” Semenov concluded.

But even without Afrin, the Kurdish influence on the region will be significant, and the Kurds will definitely be part of the overall political solution to the conflict in the country. And whether Moscow, having turned away from yesterday’s allies, will be able to successfully influence the future of Syria after the war is a big question.

YEREVAN, January 26. News-Armenia. Europe reacted rather restrainedly to the outbreak of the war between the Turks and the Kurds. Even if the United States and Russia did not officially welcome the “olive branch” extended by the Turks to the Syrian Kurds, their position nevertheless shows a certain interest in these events. In the case of Europeans, another outbreak of conflict in the Middle East is unacceptable for at least two reasons.

The threat of the "Ninth Wave" of illegal immigrants

Firstly, the Old World has not yet fully recovered from the latest migration crisis, associated with both the civil war that began in Syria in 2012 and the chain of Arab revolutions that caused the “ninth wave” of illegal migration to Europe.

Secondly, in Europe, especially in Germany, Austria and the Scandinavian countries, as is known, there live a considerable number of Turks and Kurds, the war between whom in the Middle East, if it continues, threatens to result in clashes and riots in European cities.

The first sign confirming what has been said is the fight between Kurds and Turks at the airport in Hannover, Germany, which occurred on January 22. Rumors of clashes between Kurds and Turks are also coming from other European cities, in particular Vienna.

The likelihood of a protracted conflict is high

Today it is difficult to predict how long the Turkish-Kurdish conflict will continue. According to even Turkish experts, the possible timing of the operation is difficult to estimate, since the area where it will be carried out is mountainous terrain, to which Kurdish formations are well adapted, and therefore the operation is unlikely to end quickly. In this regard, the likelihood of new clashes between Kurds and Turks in Europe may increase exponentially. Other experts also do not believe in the quick defeat of the Kurds and the end of hostilities (unless, of course, the Turks themselves stop their offensive), arguing that during the war in Syria there have been no precedents for the complete defeat of an isolated group of 10,000 people.

Threat to the security of EU countries

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Thus, a new threat to European security is becoming almost inevitable, and its first signs are already evident. We are talking, first of all, about new possible flows of refugees to European countries. At least 5,000 civilians have already fled Afrin and taken refuge in surrounding villages, UN envoy to the region Stefan Dujarrich said. At least a thousand more people left for Aleppo. There is a lot of information about panic among civilians in Syrian areas targeted by the Turkish army.

Considering that the places of temporary shelters of the same refugees from Afrin are unlikely to have a high level of security, then the further trajectory of the fate of these potential new migrants is not difficult to guess.

By the way, in Turkey itself today there is also an increase in tension between the two peoples. Thus, according to the Turkish state agency Anadolu, on the night of January 23, a special operation was carried out in the Kurdish-populated provinces of Izmir, Van, Mersin, Muş, as a result of which about a hundred people were arrested on charges of promoting terrorism. Those detained include politicians from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democracy Party (HDP) and journalists.

This means that, unlike the previous flow of refugees to Europe, which was slightly softened by the fact that Turkey took part of the blow, there will no longer be such a buffer.

Moreover, given the new rampant repression in Turkey against the Kurds, Turkish Kurds may also join the new refugees from Syria, which in turn increases the likelihood of them clashing with the Turks in Europe.

Brussels' reaction

Nevertheless, it is wrong to say that Europe is completely unresponsive to the new turn of events in the Middle East. Let us recall that French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called for a meeting of the UN Security Council, for which official Ankara, represented by the Turkish Foreign Ministry, immediately accused him of “solidarity with terrorists,” and assessments of the actions of the Turkish military by monitoring organizations, in particular , the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) report on civilian casualties in the Afrin region has been dubbed “black propaganda.”

There is also a reaction from the European capital. The head of EU diplomacy, Federica Mogherini, at a press conference following a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, said that the EU is concerned about Turkey's operation against the Kurds in northern Syria.

German Leopards misfired

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In the current situation, it seems that Germany is in the most difficult situation among European countries, and not only for the reasons listed above. There are also more serious reasons for Berlin’s concern, in particular, information that the German Leopard tanks supplied by Germany to Turkey were used not against IS militants, but against Kurdish self-defense units. In response to this, according to the Russian Air Force Service, a group of German politicians, which also includes members of the CDU-CSU, called on the authorities to stop exporting weapons to Turkey.

Despite the fact that the press service of the German Foreign Ministry stated that the government does not yet have a complete picture of the operational situation and cannot assess Turkey’s actions from the point of view of international law, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel called on the Turkish side to pay attention to the humanitarian consequences of the offensive in Afrin.

Another reason for Angela Merkel's unrest

Today in Germany, in addition to the problem of confrontation between the Kurds and the Turks on its territory, there is also a serious government crisis. Chancellor Angela Merkel, after the failure of negotiations with the Greens and liberals, still cannot finally reach an agreement with her opponents from the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to create a coalition government. In this situation, it cannot be ruled out that the war unleashed by the Turks in the Middle East will not aggravate the internal political situation in Germany, although experts predict the creation of a coalition government in April, by Easter.

To be fair, it should be noted that these predictions were made even before Turkey entered the war with the Kurds. Therefore, we cannot exclude the possibility that the creation of a coalition government will be postponed to a later date.

In this regard, the situation in Germany, against the backdrop of negative consequences for Europe from the new phase of the war in the Middle East, will not allow Brussels to come out quickly and with a unified and clear position. Instead, there will be separate, fragmented reactions of one nature or another from the capitals of the EU countries. -0-

Manvel Gumashyan, expert on international politics, specially for Novosti-Armenia