The memorandum on the creation of four “de-escalation zones” in Syria is called historic and moves the protracted conflict to a new stage. Of interest here is not only the question of why these four areas on the map were chosen, but also what their significance is in military-strategic terms. What is going on there that made it necessary to invent a new peacekeeping format?

The approximate location of the four “de-escalation zones” in Syria was obvious from the beginning, but more specific boundaries were difficult to establish. In practice, this is a truly complex story, since only in one case - in Idlib - can a zone be formed along the existing stable front line. It has long since turned into a goblin reserve, dealing with which is a separate story and hard work.

In the foreseeable future, it is difficult to imagine exactly how this zone should be dealt with and who will ultimately be responsible for it. Even Turkey, whose border the province of Idlib adjoins, does not seek to establish total control there, limiting itself to manipulations with pro-Turkish groups.

The remaining three “de-escalation zones” are jihadist enclaves surrounded by government forces. They were doomed to destruction to one degree or another sooner or later if they had not stopped resisting. Moreover, in two of them we were already talking about a mixed type of liquidation: some of the militants agreed to leave for Idlib according to a proven scheme, and some surrendered under security guarantees.

First of all, we are talking about Eastern Ghouta - a long-suffering satellite of Damascus, an almost independent urban entity that has been a stronghold of various militants for more than four years. In the last year and a half, the city's former multi-apartment blocks were practically destroyed as a result of street fighting, and the territory controlled by terrorists was reduced by almost ten times. At the same time, open areas and wadis - dry river beds - completely came under the control of government troops, and individual groups of militants were cut off from each other and surrounded.

In such a situation, even the irreconcilable parts of ISIS and al-Qaeda, surrounded in Eastern Ghouta, periodically asked for a “ticket to Idlib”, and they were periodically given such an opportunity, which caused criticism even within Bashar al-Assad’s entourage. First of all, among the military, who were perplexed why the militants were allowed to travel to the “Idlib reserve” in a situation where they could be destroyed.

Another thing is that the war to a victorious end in Eastern Ghouta could drag on for a long time, even if it did not entail losses among the civilian population - there were practically none left there. Residents of the development fled to Damascus three years ago, and the desert inhabitants (“Sahrawi”) of the surrounding area and wadi stoically endured both the occupation and the battles of recent years.

The creation of a “de-escalation zone” in Eastern Ghouta will eliminate the danger to the central part of Damascus. Another thing is that it is difficult to imagine how exactly the relationship will be established between the troops on the perimeter, the civilian authorities and the irreconcilable parts of the jihadists remaining in Eastern Ghouta. According to some reports, communication with the “irreconcilables” may be entrusted to those parts of the “moderates” that are participating in the negotiations in Astana and are present in Eastern Ghouta militarily. There have already been such precedents, the main thing is that they do not end in massacre, since in this case all undertakings will go to waste.

It remains to be added that in total almost 600 thousand people live in Ghouta, many of whom regularly travel across the front line to Damascus to work. However, the security zone does not include territories controlled by ISIS.

Approximately the same situation has developed north of the city of Homs, but religious and ethnic problems are much more clearly represented there. Small enclaves held by jihadists and “moderates” stretch in a narrow strip north of Homs and block several large settlements with Alawite and Christian populations. The situation in this region is especially complex - it is not just a front line, as in Idlib or Aleppo, but a contact between directly opposing religious sides of the conflict.

Continuing military operations in this region would predictably lead to heavy casualties. For example, in the area of ​​the city of Er-Rastan, up to three thousand militants are concentrated in a population of more than 100 thousand people. What is especially important here is the already announced creation of a “safety zone”, which will provide an opportunity to avoid future blockades of individual settlements with an isolated population of a specific religion.

Finally, in the supposed “de-escalation zone” in the south of the country - in the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra - up to half a million people live, and the number of armed groups of jihadists and moderates is estimated at about 15 thousand people. The population there is also mixed, but due to the significant concentration of Shiites near the border with Lebanon, Iran is supposed to monitor the truce.

The final geographical delimitation of all four zones must be carried out before May 22, which in itself speaks of the complexity of this process. Only five days after this will a working group be created that will resolve the practical issues of the demarcation itself. By and large, after determining the exact boundaries of all zones, the basis of the work will be precisely humanitarian. And God grant that you manage to concentrate on this.

The Russian Ministry of Defense assesses the situation in the de-escalation zones in Syria as stable. This is stated in the information bulletin of the Russian Ministry of Defense published on August 28. Over the past 24 hours, Russian and Turkish observers have recorded only seven cases of indiscriminate shooting in de-escalation zones, the document reports.

At the same time, agreements were signed on joining the cessation of hostilities in the settlements of Hifsin, Maan, Krakh in Hama province, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported. The number of localities that have joined the reconciliation process has increased to 2,214. This means that de-escalation zones are proving their effectiveness.

There are currently four de-escalation zones in Syria, in which, in accordance with the agreements of the various parties to the conflict and international mediators, a cessation of hostilities is in effect.

The creation of such zones began at the Fourth International Conference on Syria in Astana. On May 4, 2017, it ended with the adoption by the truce guarantor countries - Russia, Iran and Turkey - of a memorandum, according to which four de-escalation zones are created on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR). A serious impetus for agreeing on this agreement was given by the negotiations in Sochi on May 3 between the presidents of Russia and Turkey.

The de-escalation zones included Idlib province and some parts of neighboring provinces - Aleppo, Latakia and Hama; area north of Homs; as well as the Eastern Ghouta region and southern Syria. In accordance with the agreement, from May 6, a ban on military activity, including aviation flights, was introduced in these territories. The document is valid for six months and can be automatically extended for the same period.

Security zones should be established on the borders of tension-reduction areas, where checkpoints will be installed for the passage of civilians and the delivery of humanitarian aid, as well as points for monitoring compliance with the ceasefire.

Determining the specific boundaries of such territories is the responsibility of the Joint Working Group on De-Escalation. It was intended to create it before the end of May, but this mechanism was only documented during the fifth Astana meeting on July 4–5. As part of the July round, none of the four zones received boundaries. If at that time there was a consensus on Eastern Ghouta and Homs, then serious revision was required on the Idlib region and southern Syria.

According to sources, the discrepancies centered on Iran's participation in monitoring the de-escalation zones. In addition, Israel strongly opposed the presence of Iranian and pro-Iranian units in southern Syria. As the special representative of the Russian President for the Syrian settlement, the head of the Russian delegation at the negotiations, Alexander Lavrentyev, said at the time, there cannot be a southern zone without the participation of Jordan and the United States, given the influence of these countries on opposition groups.

The question of control forces, their powers, measures to respond to ceasefire violations and the possibility of using weapons also remained open. By default, Russian military police units were expected to participate in this.

The Russian representative at the briefing actually confirmed the information about the proposal to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to send their contingents to the contact line to monitor the situation. “We have addressed all CIS countries with a proposal to consider the possibility of the country sending a contingent within reasonable limits to jointly participate in monitoring the situation,” he said. “We are not imposing it on anyone.”

For further progress, political will was needed, which was demonstrated during the first meeting of Russian and US Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Hamburg on July 7. As a result of the Russian-American summit, a de-escalation zone has been in effect in southwestern Syria since July 9, including the provinces of Daraa, Quneitra and Es-Suwayda. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Moscow and Washington did everything to ensure that Israel’s security interests were fully taken into account when creating this de-escalation zone.

Later, tension reduction zones began operating in the areas of Homs and Eastern Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus.

On August 23, the Joint Monitoring Center for the Southern De-Escalation Zone in Syria began operating in Amman. As the Russian Defense Ministry explained, the center’s tasks include monitoring compliance with the cessation of hostilities in the southern de-escalation zone, ensuring unhindered access for humanitarian supplies, as well as providing medical and other assistance to the population.

At the moment, it remains to agree on the boundaries of the de-escalation zone in the Idlib region. “The process is quite complicated,” Sergei Lavrov described the process of approval.

The next international meeting in Astana is now scheduled for the second ten days of September. Depending on the approval on paper and on the ground of the boundaries of the areas for reducing tensions, there are documents on the exchange of detainees and on the demining of historical heritage sites

Where any clashes between government troops and armed groups cease, they begin to operate on the territory of the country, in accordance with previously reached agreements in Astana.

Representatives of the guarantor countries (Russia, Iran, Turkey) of the truce in Syria, during the next round of international negotiations in Astana, signed a memorandum on the creation of four de-escalation zones in Syria, which include the province of Idlib and seven other regions. According to the memorandum, from May 6, any clashes between government troops and armed groups will cease in these zones. De-escalation zones

Deputy Chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Stanislav Gadzhimagomedov, previously reported that a memorandum on de-escalation zones in Syria was agreed upon with 27 field commanders of detachments operating directly in de-escalation zones.

The head of the main operational directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Sergei Rudskoy, in turn, said that Damascus will send the forces released as a result of the establishment of de-escalation zones against the Islamic State (IS, banned in Russia), and the Russian Aerospace Forces will support these actions.

Speaking about the work of aviation in de-escalation zones, the special envoy of the President of the Russian Federation, the head of the Russian delegation at the negotiations on Syria in Astana, Alexander Lavrentyev, said that the work of coalition aviation in de-escalation zones in Syria is impossible, the guarantor countries will carefully monitor all actions in this direction.

“The work of aviation in de-escalation zones, especially the forces of the international coalition, is not provided for absolutely - with notification, without notification. This issue is closed. The only place where aviation of the international coalition can operate is on the objects of the Islamic State, which are located in the area where the forces of this group are concentrated - in the Raqqa area, in other settlements in the Euphrates region, Deir ez-Zor and on Iraqi territory,” Lavrentiev told reporters.

According to the memorandum, Russia, Turkey and Iran, as guarantor countries of the cessation of hostilities, will prepare maps of security zones in Syria by June 4.

According to Lavrentyev, de-escalation zones in Syria will be established for six months with an extension for a similar period, but the memorandum may be indefinite.

Position of Iran and Syria

According to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Jaberi Ansari, the countries participating in the process in Astana will try to make the ceasefire more stable and extend to all zones where clashes are taking place, as well as take effective actions to combat terrorism. According to him, this could help resolve the crisis in Syria.

“The document, signed by representatives of the truce guarantor countries, if implemented correctly, could lead to fundamental changes in Syria,” Ansari told reporters.

The Syrian leadership supported the Russian initiative to create safe zones. In addition, Damascus confirmed the continuation by the Syrian army and allied forces of the fight against terrorism, in particular IS, Jabhat al-Nusra (both groups are banned in the Russian Federation) and other terrorist groups associated with them, wherever they are located on its territory.

“I don’t know about that,” Davis said at a briefing, answering a question about whether the Russian military warned the United States not to fly over de-escalation zones.

At the same time, he noted that the creation of security zones in Syria will not interfere with the coalition operation against the Islamic State. “I would note that the de-escalation zones, as I saw them on the map, are in the west of Syria, not where ISIS operates. We (the United States and allies - ed.) are concentrating on operations against the Islamic State in the east (Syria - ed.) and in the Euphrates River valley,” Davis said.

Following the leak of information about Russian-Israeli agreements regarding a de-escalation zone in southwestern Syria, the Syrian regime launched a military campaign designed to establish control over this territory or achieve agreements on the surrender of opposition factions operating there. This in turn would be a repeat of events in Eastern Ghouta and the northern Homs countryside, raising the question: Is the Russian initiative to create de-escalation zones a ploy to eliminate the armed opposition and gradually restore regime power in these regions?

Create de-escalation zones and then destroy them

After the fall of the city of Aleppo to the forces of the Syrian regime in December 2016, the conclusion of a Russian-Turkish agreement guaranteeing the withdrawal of opposition groups from the eastern part of the city, as well as a number of major battles, Moscow launched a negotiation track in Astana, which adopted a trilateral format with the accession of Iran. After several rounds of negotiations, on May 4, 2017, the guarantor states reached an agreement on the creation of four de-escalation zones: Idlib, northern Homs, Eastern Ghouta and the southern region. To limit Iran's role, Moscow has agreed with various foreign parties on the implementation details of de-escalation agreements in each of these areas. On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg (Germany) on July 7, 2017, an agreement was reached with Washington on the creation of a de-escalation zone in southwestern Syria. Details of the agreements were determined with Jordan's participation in a subsequent agreement on November 11, 2017. In July 2017, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that, through Egyptian mediation, it had concluded an agreement with Syrian opposition groups regarding de-escalation mechanisms in Eastern Ghouta, northern Homs and southern Hama. During the sixth round of negotiations in Astana in mid-September 2017, Russia, Iran and Turkey reached an agreement on a de-escalation zone in Idlib, which also included areas in Hama, Aleppo and Latakia. On October 12, 2017, with the mediation of Egypt, an agreement was concluded between Russia and armed opposition groups on the accession of the southern regions of Damascus to the de-escalation zone in Eastern Ghouta.

— Shafik Mandhai (@ShafikFM) April 15, 2018

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a statement in which he noted that “the experience of the liberation of Aleppo can be applied in Ghouta.” A few days after this, the Syrian regime, with the support of Russia, began to attack strongholds of opposition factions in Ghouta, which ended with the conclusion of a truce, the withdrawal of the opposition forces from areas previously controlled by them and the withdrawal together with their families to northern Syria, where opposition factions close to Turkey operate .

Within a few days, the same fate awaited opposition factions in villages and other settlements in the east of Qalamoun, in the Al-Qadam and Al-Asali neighborhoods in the south of the capital, as well as in the settlements of Beit Saham, Babila, Yalda in the rural areas in the south Damascus, in the cities of northern Homs and southern Hama. Only a small group of IS fighters remained in the Al-Hajar Al-Aswad area, whose withdrawal was agreed upon after heavy fighting. The agreement to withdraw Tahrir al-Sham forces from the Yarmouk camp in southern Damascus was particularly important as it was part of a deal that also included the evacuation of the predominantly Shiite towns of Kafraya and Fua in western Idlib.

Distribution of areas of control and their future

The regime is close to clearing the so-called “useful Syria” of any armed presence allowed under the de-escalation agreements brokered by Cairo. Therefore, only two de-escalation zones remained untouched: in the southwest of Syria (Deraa and Al-Quneitra), taking into account the agreements between Russia, the United States and Jordan, and the zone in Idlib, which is controlled by the Turkish, Iranian and Russian sides. Before the regime finally began attacking the de-escalation zone in the south, four main zones of influence emerged in Syria, governed by different agreements, namely:

1. So-called “useful Syria,” the largest of these areas, which is controlled by the Syrian regime and is subject to agreements governing the regime’s relations with Iran and Russia, as well as agreements between Moscow and Tehran, which are characterized by hidden competition. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has issued laws promoting , the most important of which is Decree No. 10, allowing municipalities to create organizational districts in administrative units.

© Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

2. The zone east of the Euphrates River, including At-Tanf and Ar-Rukban, the situation in which is regulated in accordance with the Hamburg agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as the Russian-American ceasefire agreement concluded in 2015. Washington has used force against attempts by the Syrian regime, Russia and Iran to test its commitment to stability in the region. France and Saudi Arabia have reached an understanding with the American side regarding actions in the area east of the Euphrates, while statements by Turkish officials express interest in the fate of these areas, in particular Raqqa and Qamishli in Hasakah province.

3.The border strip between the city of Jarablus on the west bank of the Euphrates River in the northeast of Aleppo province to the border in the northwest of Latakia province, under Turkish supervision. The Turkish army annexed the strip to the Afrin region and set up observation posts in several places in the countryside of Idlib, Hama, Latakia and Aleppo, one of which is deep in Syrian territory 200 kilometers from the Turkish-Syrian border. The region is regulated in accordance with Russian-Turkish agreements, which Iran is trying to disrupt. The zone has many active armed groups, and its towns and villages are the last refuge for armed opposition factions previously displaced from other regions.

4.Southwestern Syria is a zone created as a result of the Russian-American-Jordanian agreement concluded in two stages in the summer and autumn of 2017. Currently under major attack by the regime, which is trying to regain control of the territory. Jordan tried to reach an agreement with Russia regarding adherence to the terms of the agreement on the creation of this de-escalation zone, but Moscow refused. Speaking about the Syrian south, Lavrov told Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi that there are no terrorist groups in the de-escalation areas that need to be eliminated.

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AFP 01/24/2018 On the other hand, Russia has reached an agreement with Israel allowing the regime to regain control of the southern region if Iran and its militias withdraw from the border between Syria and the occupied Golan. The agreement appears to be part of a broader US-Russian agreement (in coordination with Israel) that includes a complete withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria in exchange for restoring the regime's power and allowing it to extend it across much of the country. This means that Israel accepts the Syrian regime with Russia and without Iran, which opens up many possibilities in the future.

Conclusion

Over time, it became obvious that the idea of ​​​​creating de-escalation zones is just a Russian ploy, the main goals of which are a military resolution of the conflict in Syria in favor of the regime and the forced exclusion of opposition factions from any solution that involves a political transition of power. Following recent military achievements, the regime has taken an even tougher stance towards the resumption of the Geneva negotiations. The eighth round, held in December 2017, failed to make any progress due to the government delegation's refusal to discuss any issues until state authority was restored throughout Syrian territory and liberated from terrorist groups.

Likewise, Russia took a hard line in its rejection of the Geneva process after Putin was elected to a new presidential term. Her intention to eliminate the de-escalation zones in the southwest (Deraa and Quneitra) and northwest (Idlib) of Syria in parallel with attempts to replace the Geneva negotiations with a track in Astana and the results of the Sochi conference became obvious. The Russians seek to control the outcome of any possible political process through military force or through truces in the regions, reducing them to simple negotiations on the boundaries of the powers of the center and regions and amendments to a number of laws, such as the Decree on Local Government No. 107 and the Decree on Organized Regions No. 10.

These changes require the opposition to develop a new political strategy for all of Syria, rather than a specific region, aimed at thwarting Russian plans to restore power to a regime in cahoots with Israel, the United States and some Arab and European countries. The opposition must also refuse to accept the legitimacy of the status quo and focus on bringing to justice the Syrian regime and all those who support it at the national and international levels. It must bring the case to the courts that hear cases of war crimes and crimes against humanity that have claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Syrians.

InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial staff.

In Syria, signed by Russia, Turkey and Iran the day before as part of a meeting in Astana. Four zones in different parts of the country are to be created for a period of six months. The use of weapons will be prohibited there, infrastructure restoration will begin, and humanitarian organizations will work. The authors of the initiative hope that this will mark the beginning of the return of residents. The memorandum was supported by the Syrian authorities, as well as the opposition, although with reservations.

The document signed in Astana states: “The creation of de-escalation zones and security zones is a temporary measure, the validity of which will be six months. It will be automatically extended based on the consensus of the guarantor countries... This memorandum comes into force the next day after signing.” . (Quote from TASS.)

Initially, peaceful zones are approximately outlined. According to media reports, there are four of them: in Idlib province, north of Homs, in Eastern Ghouta and in southern Syria. From May 6, all hostilities in these territories must cease.

It is expected that “two weeks after the signing of the memorandum, the guarantor countries will form a de-escalation working group, consisting of their authorized representatives, to mark the boundaries of de-escalation zones and security zones, and also resolve other operational and technical issues related to the implementation of the memorandum.” By June 4, maps of these zones should be ready, as well as maps for separating armed opposition groups from terrorists. This will be done by a joint expert group created by the guarantor countries.

“Further compliance with the cessation of hostilities will largely depend directly on those armed opposition formations that are located in the de-escalation zones, but also on terrorist organizations, primarily Jabhat al-Nusra*, whose presence in these territories is quite significant,” - stated the day before the head of the Russian delegation in Astana, Alexander Lavrentyev.

In addition, rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access will be provided to de-escalation zones; conditions have been created for the delivery of medical care to the local population and to meet the basic needs of civilians; conditions will be created for the safe and voluntary return of refugees and forced migrants within the country, the memorandum notes. “Security zones will be established along the lines of de-escalation zones to prevent incidents and military clashes between the conflicting parties,” the document says.

“The guarantor countries will continue efforts to join the ceasefire regime of armed opposition groups that have not yet joined it. The guarantor countries will take all necessary measures to ensure compliance with the ceasefire regime by the conflicting parties,” the memorandum states.

Syrian opposition supports initiative, but is against Iran

The Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the country's government supports the idea of ​​​​creating de-escalation zones; representatives of the Syrian opposition also welcomed Moscow's initiative.

At the same time, the delegation of the Syrian armed opposition stated following the negotiations in Astana that it rejects Iran’s role as a guarantor of the truce in Syria. “The delegation of the revolutionary forces would like to reiterate that any agreement will not be acceptable if it does not include the following points,” TASS quotes a statement from the delegation. “Rejection of any role for Iran and its associated units and rejection of Iran acting as guarantor or in any other role."

At the same time, the representative of the delegation, Osama Abu Zeid, according to Interfax, said that the armed Syrian opposition is ready to continue dialogue on a political settlement in Syria, in particular in Astana.

The Russian special representative said at a press conference following the negotiations that it would be possible to talk about the withdrawal of Iranian-controlled forces from Syria if the agreements on de-escalation zones are effectively implemented.

Iran in Syria supports Hezbollah combat units that are fighting on the side of Bashar al-Assad’s army.

UN Secretary General welcomes agreement

The UN supports the agreement reached in Astana to reduce violence in Syria, said the organization's Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

“The Secretary-General is encouraged by the agreement reached today in Astana between the guarantor countries Iran, Russia and Turkey to de-escalate violence in key areas of Syria. It is extremely important that this agreement really serves to improve the lives of Syrians,” TASS quotes UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric as saying.

Guterres hopes to see an end to the use of all weapons and to ensure rapid and safe humanitarian access. “The undertaken obligations should not affect the rights of Syrians to seek and receive asylum,” the message emphasizes. *Jabhat al-Nusra is a terrorist group banned in the Russian Federation.